As the world
governments are opening or easing the lock downs the major concern for common
citizens have been for their jobs and businesses. The world events affect common citizens ever
more in a globalized world. Global lock down has been unprecedented event likes
of which the world has never seen. This is the beginning of the Bronze Age
collapse of modern age civilization, except this will be very slow and painful
collapse. While as Common citizens we
read and we hold our own opinions on these world events, we usually do not have
the power or say over them. That is why
the focus of my article is on effects of global lock down on common citizens
and how can they minimize the impact of their lives and livelihoods.
The Post Lock down scenario
The unplanned and foolishly implemented global lock down has accelerated the pre-lock down problems at a catastrophic rate in addition to the new problems brought about by pandemic.
The unplanned and foolishly implemented global lock down has accelerated the pre-lock down problems at a catastrophic rate in addition to the new problems brought about by pandemic.
The leadership that brought about
catastrophe of lock down on the world is still present and hence there is
little hope from the world governments to manage the fallout. The economic
problems, climate change and crony capitalists holding majority of world’s
wealth have been around before Covid virus had hit. Many experts have begun to warn
about an economic depression the size of which the world has never seen. Besides economic catastrophe, there are a lot
of other aspects the fallout from global lock down will bring that experts are
not speaking about.
Economic fallout
Debt ridden world economy was already slowing down substantially, with right wing governments reversing the progress from World trade regime and also US China trade wars. The global lock down has accelerated this down turn into a global depression.
Debt ridden world economy was already slowing down substantially, with right wing governments reversing the progress from World trade regime and also US China trade wars. The global lock down has accelerated this down turn into a global depression.
The media economists
will say all sorts of mambo jumbo which will only confuse you. The simplest way
to understand the economic fallout is using Maslow’s pyramid, a good tool that will help us understand
which industries or businesses are likely to float and which ones are in danger
of suffering or being wiped out.
A theory of motivation developed by Abraham Maslow stacks the human needs in form of a pyramid with basic needs being
at the lowest level. This theory can be used as a tool to predict the
industries and businesses that would better placed to weather the impending
depression. When the economy is down
people prefer to fulfill their basic needs and tend to favor industries and
companies that are at a lower level of the pyramid. Consider industries such as food industry,
clothing industry and basic necessities industries that provide electricity,
water and communication services at the bottom of the pyramid. Consider
insurance and personal security on the second step of pyramid. As you go up the
pyramid you will find industries like tourism, real estate and luxury
industries. The worst the depression more the industries at the top of the
pyramid will suffer.
Pyramid represents Maslow's Hierarchy of needs |
Hence common people need to focus their
businesses and employment on industries at the bottom or at least lower down
the pyramid. Moving out of industries that are at the top of
Maslow’s Pyramid like tourism, luxury goods and such industries that people can
do without in difficult times. It is wise to move into essential or products
that are important to people at present for example, security. This is always not possible but those who can would
be able to reduce the impact of depression in their lives.
The graph also supports the Maslow’s theory, but the graph represents the economy during the lock down period. While post lock down other needs would gain priority as businesses start and people try to resume their daily lives. Then industries like personal health, personal hygiene, education, manufacturing, pharma, business travel etc. will also show growth.
The graph also supports the Maslow’s theory, but the graph represents the economy during the lock down period. While post lock down other needs would gain priority as businesses start and people try to resume their daily lives. Then industries like personal health, personal hygiene, education, manufacturing, pharma, business travel etc. will also show growth.
Move Online
Businesses will aggressively
move online post lock down. Even those
who shunned online businesses or were apathetic to it have now been forced to
use online means to conduct their businesses. The employees were told to work
from homes. Therefore business will move online more than ever. Moving online will also save costs for
businesses for example companies were already looking for freelancing their
work whenever possible, will now look to online freelancing sites to get their
work done saving salaries and office expenses. Automation will be huge as
companies have realized that Human workers have weaknesses and investing in
automation will save them many costs in the long run. New social distancing
norms will further push businesses to move online or automate.
Therefore, if you move your business and
employment online it would help reduce impact of post lock down depression on
your income. For those who seek employment, I suggest that they also need to
look for freelancing work online and generate some side income online. They
should also have presence online to find employment. It would be harder to find employment or
business offline during these times.
Safety and security
The failing economy and job losses will bring poverty on a massive scale. For over populated third world nations the problems will be many folds. The unemployment and poverty will force people to life of crime creating security issue in many countries. There will be increased robbery, theft, murder and rapes. There will be increase in cons as criminals will try to con honest citizens. Your homes, offices and neighborhoods will not be safe anymore. Many countries will face organized crimes, gang wars and police corruption.
Hence it would be wise to focus on security of
your families and properties. From better locks to safety measures like
avoiding travelling at night to whatever is most suitable in your situation. Do
everything possible to safeguard yourself and your family from harm. Beware of
con men, they come in many forms friends, business partners, government
officials or service provider, be on your guard at all times. Hard times forces
even otherwise good people to commit unethical acts.
Supply Chain disruption
Supply Chain disruption
The supply chains have been affected and the supply chain system is exposed during this pandemic. Expect food and other essential commodities shortage and prepare for the same. This at the same time will also offer opportunities for those who can take advantage.
Children's education
The education system and your children's future will not go unaffected from this event. You will need to rethink their careers with the dynamic world we live in. Children need to have online presence and under adult supervision. Children also should be taught to generate some side income online. This is important to help them be financially secure. They need to be prepared for the very turbulent future ahead.
Infrastructure
The infrastructure projects may see a temporary upturn in some countries as part of efforts to save jobs post lock down. This may be opportunity for some but in the long run infrastructure development and even maintenance would suffer. This would ultimately have very negative impact on economy, businesses and law & order as well.
New Challenges
I had stated earlier in my Blog posts that people are scared due to media hype. Hence, Covid 19 pandemic is posing new challenges. Social distancing norms are order of the day and large public gatherings are shunned. Until the fear dies out these will continue to pose challenges to our normal lives. Besides the financial loss suffered during lock down people have unfounded fear of Covid virus thanks to false media propaganda. This is preventing people from going out to businesses that are open. Contrary to popular belief that economies run on hard numbers, economies actually runs on emotions.
The infrastructure projects may see a temporary upturn in some countries as part of efforts to save jobs post lock down. This may be opportunity for some but in the long run infrastructure development and even maintenance would suffer. This would ultimately have very negative impact on economy, businesses and law & order as well.
New Challenges
I had stated earlier in my Blog posts that people are scared due to media hype. Hence, Covid 19 pandemic is posing new challenges. Social distancing norms are order of the day and large public gatherings are shunned. Until the fear dies out these will continue to pose challenges to our normal lives. Besides the financial loss suffered during lock down people have unfounded fear of Covid virus thanks to false media propaganda. This is preventing people from going out to businesses that are open. Contrary to popular belief that economies run on hard numbers, economies actually runs on emotions.
It depends on people’s sentiments when they feel hopeful they spend and economy grows and when they are scared about their future they avoid purchases and economy tanks. The situation we have right now is that people are extremely scared as governments have been extending lock downs in some form or other because they have foolishly decided that they will end infection with lock downs. Now people have lost trust in their governments and even when lock down is lifted the growing numbers of infected will only worry the public as to if the lock downs would be lifted and also as regards to their financial future. We will have to live with the virus and will have to work with behavior of the people around it.
Long Term implication
The world changing events bring about permanent changes or at least their effects remain for decades. This event came at a time when the planet is already facing many problems.
The world population will be impacted, not by
deaths from Corona virus, but the stupidity that was lock down. Million will
die of poverty, migration, riots and crimes resulting from this event. This
event will follow with dip in world population in the coming years. We may also
see political changes and wars due to extreme economic pressures. Safety and security should be top priority for
common citizens be it financial or personal. You should not hesitate to plan
migration in the long term if you feel your country’s or area’s situation will
deteriorate in the future. The long term effects will not be visible in months
to come in fact you may even see a temporary spurt in activity a few months
after lock down. The real economic effect of the lock downs would only begin to show up after companies will start posting
losses at the end of their quarters and media starts spreading panic. The media
is more dangerous than actual impact as economies run on emotions and fear is
very toxic for the markets. Many experts
have already warned that the economy will recover very slowly this time around.
The future
The Covid 19 Pandemic is a
creation of Human interference into nature. The spread of infection is blatant
failure of the governments. The response to that failure with lock downs and
letting mad media go on with their fear mongering in the name of free speech
has resulted in this catastrophe. Only knowledge is way out of this situation,
unfortunately scared people seldom listen to logic.
For common citizens, make no mistake you will
be living watching your back from here on. If you are a minority be extra
vigilant. This is no longer a normal life as you knew it. There is a lot more
that will kill you or harm you then Corona virus. In fact Corona Virus should
not be a worry for you.
The real threat is from desperate people, greedy
irresponsible and foolish governments and people
trying to swindle you. You will have to work extra hard, avoid unnecessary expenses extra hard and keep your security high extra hard from here on. Expecting from the governments will only increase your misery as the governments have long been sold to corporate and it is there decision making that led you here. Remember there is always someone making money when people are losing money. So find ways of making money, the difficult times only make us strong. Take heart in the fact that if you survive these times you will be ready to face anything coming your way.
trying to swindle you. You will have to work extra hard, avoid unnecessary expenses extra hard and keep your security high extra hard from here on. Expecting from the governments will only increase your misery as the governments have long been sold to corporate and it is there decision making that led you here. Remember there is always someone making money when people are losing money. So find ways of making money, the difficult times only make us strong. Take heart in the fact that if you survive these times you will be ready to face anything coming your way.
The aim of this article is not to scare but
warn people for impending problems so that they minimize the impact on their lives.
Good luck surviving the start of the end.
Very knowledgeable and very helpful article at this time specially.
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